When the math works against us

There's a big flaw in my proposed nball+ (neanderball plus math) offensive suggestions for money-ball. Situations where the math is against us.

Let’s sum up the money-ball series to date:

1. Space-force theory could help teams figure out where to spend their money.

2. A true money-ball approach wouldn’t chase obvious stars like space force theory does but instead try and find hidden value. I think deep passing would be the football equivalent of “let’s get tons of guys who get on base.”

3. Game theory would suggest the most efficient way to do this is actually to build a run game that packs bodies into the box while isolating a single receiver.

4. There’s a few different styles of “neanderball” we could employ to load up the box and build a run game.

5. The choice route and a philosophy of hunting opportunities to take deep shots is how would add “math” to neanderball.

Now, there’s still a big flaw in my plan to create a neanderball plus math (nball+) offense. Has anyone spotted it?

We have a great plan of action for 1st and 10, a great plan of action for short-yardage, and obvious goal line solutions…what about the situations that are mathematically bad for us? 2nd-and-10? 3rd-and-7?

What do we do then?