Who won Week 6 in college football?
Early rivalry week was a predictable thud and the Matt Rhule sweepstakes are soon to be upon us.
I think we’re probably done talking about the Oklahoma Sooners here for a while. They’ve been a regular topic because, for a number of reasons, I foresaw this season going terribly wrong for them.
Well they’re 0-3 in Big 12 play now and just got boat raced by Texas in the Red River Shutout Shootout. Dillon Gabriel likely returns to give them an opening seven point spread over Kansas but many will be fading them in that contest and the outcome really doesn’t really matter. Sure, losing to Kansas at home in front of their fans would be rough, but one way or another the year is going to be a disappointing letdown with some painful occurrences.
For the rest of the season the main questions around that program are going to be,
Can we hang on in recruiting?
Bowl eligibility?
What’s the transfer portal going to look like for us?
Elsewhere around the country, the season and its stakes are starting to materialize in interesting patterns. We’re going to have to start talking about Mississippi State, the Pac-12 looks rejuvenated, Tennessee won big again, Alabama survived a bad scare, and the Big 10 is veering toward an inevitable conclusion. Let’s dive in.
The Matt Rhule sweepstakes begin
Matt Rhule is probably the highest profile college coaching candidate on the market for this coming silly season. His college success requires a little bit of context to appreciate but it tells the story of an ideal “help us fix this!” candidate.
He came up as a player and an assistant in the Joe Paterno machine at Penn State, a legacy he understandably downplayed when he was hired to replace Art Briles at Baylor. It was truly amusing, he acted like he’d learned everything he knew about football from a single year of working for Tom Coughlin with the New York Giants. His first head coaching job was at Temple where he built a really strong football within a senior class.
His first year they went 2-10, his third year they went to the AAC Championship game but got whipped by Tom Herman and Greg Ward Jr’s Houston Cougars. His fourth year they won the league title game and Baylor hired him.
It was curious at the time that a New Yorker who’d coached largely in the Mid-Atlantic would want the Baylor job as his next step. Then it came out somehow or another that he’d been guaranteed like six years at something like six million per year. Baylor’s board and boosters were not about to let the Briles scandal prevent their program rise. They bought off Briles to make him go away and take the fall and dumped more money on Rhule to come salvage the situation.
He adapted really well to coaching in Texas, hiring some locals like high school legend Joey McGuire and ingratiating himself with the local scene. His method was basically to recruit raw athletes and take losses early while molding them with his intensive and physical practices into complete football players.
In year one they were 1-11, once again by year three they were in the conference championship game where they lost (barely) to the Jalen Hurts Sooners. Waco didn’t get a year four, Rhule convinced Carolina owner David stepper to give him $62 million over seven years so he would stay in the South and not grab the New York Giants job.
At Carolina his knack for molding raw athletes into players was less valuable than in college and a persistent Rhule weakness was finally exposed. I’ve never seen him coach a team with really good quarterback play. He’s had some solid guys, like Charlie Brewer before Rhule allowed him to be physically used up (ultra iffy concussion stuff), but never anyone great.
Now he’s headed back to the college game where he probably belongs and has consistently excelled. Where will he end up?
There are two high profile jobs already open in Wisconsin and Nebraska. Auburn is a near lock to be available as well. Don’t be shocked to see more situations like the Paul Chryst firing. There’s a ton of money at stake in the game these days and a lot of schools trying to recoup COVID losses. If a school thinks they can upgrade in a big way to Rhule, they may fire a coach with an ostensibly solid resume.
Also, Rhule is a remarkably affable and pleasant fellow in the public setting which obscures the fact he’s a ruthless competitor and negotiator. The BS Auburn has been pulling with their coaches of late will drive his price sky high if they want him. Rhule’s process requires stripping a roster down and rebuilding it from whole cloth, he’s not accepting a situation where he doesn’t have plenty of time and security to get it done his way.
If Carolina fires him soon, he’ll make good use of the time to get a bidding war going at the college level and perhaps create an opportunity for himself where none currently seems to exist. Auburn is probably the favorite right now, but look out for other bidders to emerge.
Jimbo on the goal line
Texas A&M had a really good chance to inflict what would have been a devastating loss to Alabama in what was supposed to be a revenge game for Nick Saban.
It started with Bryce Young being out with a shoulder injury, which was hilariously downplayed by the line (Bama -24.5) and the general commentary around the game. It was really as Alabama hadn’t built their whole offense around Young, or if they weren’t asking an inexperienced quarterback who’s at his best in the spread-option game to run a unit which was built for spread passing. Or like Texas A&M didn’t have really good defensive talent which could complicate such a painful transition.
That said, maybe Bama covers or at least wins comfortably had they not turned the ball over four times. But they did, so the game came down to this moment.
Anything you call here is halfway doomed. What’s essentially 4th-and-goal from the two with the game on the line is a tight spot. Everything is congested, every path is trafficked, and you need to over power your opponent.
The A&M fans are also already primed for this moment with loads of confirmation bias. They’ve got a sense the problem with the program is that the head coach is trying to be the offensive play-caller. Generally speaking, “we obviously called the wrong plays,” is already the common reasoning for “why we lost.” The coach trying to manage that task while the overall program is clearly in need of some quality control makes it an easy narrative.
Any failure on this play, within feet of the winning score, will almost definitely look impotent and trigger a million “hire a play-caller, Jimbo!” calls from the Aggies. That’s the next step for Jimbo Fisher, who’s buyout is too high and freshman class too talented to be talking about a coaching transition.
Here’s the play A&M ran:
Gotcha. This is the play they ran but it’s a different moment in the game.
It’s a 3x1 spread set with Evan Stewart, who was the reason they had a chance in this game, isolated up top and then a sort of option route in the slot for Moose Muhammad.
He’s got open grass outside under the seam route by the other slot receiver and hits it. Alabama is playing everything with inside leverage but the guys outside of Muhammad clear out so the Aggies hit it with good timing.
They went back to the well with the game on the line. Generally speaking…that’s not a great idea. The other team knows the set, their coaches are screaming from the sideline to be on alert, and you’ll get a different call on defense. Here’s how it goes the second time.
This time the Alabama defensive backs are in outside leverage on everything with the safeties sitting inside to help on any slants but also to be positioned to stop something like quarterback draw which you have to be mindful of in a situation such as this one.
You gotta check the call here on offense and dial up something to get a rub for one of the three receivers breaking outside.
Another issue the second time is Haynes King’s awful timing. He sees it too slowly and his windup can be interminable on timing routes. The ball needs to be coming by the time Evan Stewart turns around, which is rushed because he’s facing outside leverage from the cornerback. There was a brief window there where a scoring strike was possible but if you screenshot it at the moment he’s breaking open…
…King is only now winding up and ends up throwing it well short of the pylon off bad footwork.
I’ll say this, the Aggies are running a pro-style spread passing game here and I respect it. That’s how you win at the highest level. However, they are not good at it. Haynes King struggles with it, Evan Stewart is only a freshman, and they don’t have much else to hang their hat on offensively other than Devon Achane being fast.
They need to develop Conner Weigman or hit the transfer portal again and they need to keep some of their freshmen (EVAN STEWART) out of the transfer portal. This looked bad, but it’s mostly a sign of the Aggies aiming high and missing. A title-winning pro-spread passing game checks to a better play to attack the leverage outside or maybe hits that really tight window to Stewart in the boundary.
Instead…Alabama wins again.
I’ve seen and noted a lot of problems for Jimbo’s time at A&M but some of the expectations for this season are more a result of the recruiting hype for their freshmen and the acrimony with Nick Saban than realistic expectations for the season. Without healthy tight ends or healthy max Johnson or a healthier offensive line, this system isn’t going to look very pretty.
Did I underrate Tennessee?
Or did I overrate their SEC competition?
Back in 2018 a few defenses figured out the right way to handle a dangerous RPO spread team, if you could manage, was to sit back in bracket coverage with two high safeties and force them to run the ball down the field. This was a solution employed against the Crimson Tide, who were eviscerating teams with Tua Tagovailoa throwing glance routes to Jerry Jeudy, Henry Ruggs, Jaylen Waddle, Irv Smith, and Devonta Smith.
Michigan won the 2021 rivalry game with Ohio State in a similar fashion. The trick with this approach is you gotta be really good up front and really sound at linebacker, because the cavalry is pretty far away.
The Tigers didn’t try much of that method (the Gators did), electing to mostly play single-high man coverage to keep numbers in the box. But this LSU secondary ain’t what it’s been in the past. They got torched on a couple of perimeter screens early, which defeats the purpose of manning an opponent up outside, then gave up the sucker touchdown when Tennessee faked the hitch screen and then had a “blocker” run by the defensive back.
Something I’ve noticed watching games this season is the increasing disparity you’ll find in different defenses in the increasingly professionalized era of the game. Teams are employing complicated schemes on defense but there’s also less continuity because of the transfer portal. Michigan’s execution of their more pro-style defenses these days is really sharp and Alabama’s long list of coverages and leverages they can play proficiently with an uber-experienced secondary is pretty long.
Meanwhile Florida in year one with a new defensive staff or LSU in year one and with a transfer-heavy unit? Not so great. I don’t think you can build a great defense with transfer portal patches, it just runs too far counter to the nature of defensive football which is all about chemistry and collective sacrifice. More bad news for Oklahoma I guess as they try to fix their unit under Venables.
Tennessee has a lot of good players this season and their ability to mix in Hendon Hooker’s running ability with his arm strength in this uber-spread scheme is definitely working for them. Things get real now though, next up is Alabama, then an SEC bye week (Tennessee-Martin), Kentucky, and at Georgia. Those schools don’t have defenses built with mercenaries hired from the transfer portal.
Who won Week 6 in college football?
Michigan State is a huge mess right now. They weren’t even remotely competitive with Ohio State in Lansing on Saturday and the Buckeyes are ascending to the top spot in the rankings. Penn State is still lurking about in the Big 10 East but a Michigan-Ohio State game for all the marbles seems likely, as I expected all offseason. Good thing Mel Tucker cashed in when he did.
Mike Leach was a little lucky to face an Arkansas team missing K.J. Jefferson and the Razorbacks failed to make a good defense of the Bulldog offense. We’ll talk about it more later this week I think, but MSU running back Jo’quavious Marks had 16 carries for 52 yards and a score and 11 catches for 80 yards. The other running back Dillon Johnson had 17 carries for 100 yards and two scores and two catches for 49 yards.
This is the part of the Leach Air Raid I don’t think is popularly understood well. Their two running backs had a total of 46 touches for 281 yards and three touchdowns. It’s not like they’re clueless about how to use the position, it just looks different than it does elsewhere.
Like Tennessee, it’s about to get real for Mississippi State with at Kentucky and at Alabama the next two games on the schedule, Georgia later in the year, and end-of-year rival Ole Miss currently undefeated. I’m not buying in until after I see how those games go.
Texas is definitely a big winner for bringing back a healthy Quinn Ewers, who looked sharp against Oklahoma. Next week they can add former Alabama tight end Jahleel Billingsley now his six-game suspension for indiscretions at his former university has been served. As I maintained despite great pushback all offseason, Texas’ accumulation of skill talent and improved defense make them the favorite to win the Big 12 this season.
Let’s give some props this week to Chris Klieman, Kansas State, and especially Adrian Martinez. The Wildcats went into Ames in a blackout game for their “Farmageddon” rival and pulled out a 10-9 win. Martinez threw for 246 yards and ran the ball 19 times for 77 yards, he’s doing his best Collin Klein impression (under the direct guidance of Collin Klein) and his teammates have been good enough to reward his tough play with wins.
He’s escaped the net in which he was trapped at Nebraska and has a chance to compete for a Big 12 Championship. That’s a nice win.
Don’t rule out Klieman making the most of this season to jockey for a job like Nebraska, either.
My own opinion is that with the imminent downgrade of the big 12, some of these coaches with potential are going to want to land at a bigger, more sustainable program. Schools are playing musical chairs for conferences, and it should follow that coaches will play musical chairs for big time programs. Kleiman, Leipold, Aranda, and Campbell could be looking and foolish not to listen.
One additional comment. Watching Kansas this year has reminded me a little of an article you wrote for FSH that always stuck with me. You wrote how a team could consider translating classic Nebraska to the modern age with the “Pistol I”. While I believe you were discussing this in the context of playing bully ball, I can’t help but think of said article whenever I watch the Jayhawks in their “Pistol I” with a blocking FB riding sidecar rather than a RB (see Coastal or at times UCLA). And like most of those Nebraska teams, Kansas is a double not triple option team even though they sometimes give the illusion of the latter. Are they bullying people? No. More likely their constant shift and motions are clouding read keys and really helping them to out leverage teams. But the Jayhawks are not exactly soft up front either as they sometimes come right at you with success. Regardless, I’m curious if you think Kansas is at least dabbling in what you envisioned in that article?