Who can win the National Championship in 2022?

Summarizing our nation-wide search for elite teams who can win in the playoff format.

Our preview is mostly over, but I wanted to summarize the findings and try to look at who’s got the best chance to make the playoffs and then contend for a National Championship once they’re there.

I did want to pause and say I looked over a team in the West who should have been mentioned at least as a “I don’t think so but before you ask” sort of squad.

The BYU Cougars.

BYU was 10-3 last year and return quarterback Jaren Hall, top receivers Neil Pau’u and Gunner Romney, and left tackle Blake Freeland. They also added former 5-star recruit Kingsley Suamataia from Oregon to play right tackle.

Defensively the Cougars routinely lack man coverage corners but do often play with a 3-man pass rush and will often field pretty good D-linemen and get after people with their linebackers.

The schedule is where it gets interesting. The Cougars host Baylor, play at Oregon, face Notre Dame in Las Vegas (Shamrock series), host Arkansas, and end the year at Stanford. If they are 12-0 or 11-1, they won’t lack for resume.

They also play at Boise State and at Liberty, games which are more likely to sink them than help them in terms of resume but illustrate this is a grown man schedule.

If the defense can get the rule of three right and the passing game makes a leap, it’s possible BYU are this year’s Cincinnati.

Alright, now let’s talk about the teams I think are most likely to make the playoffs and win them.

First a summary of everyone we’ve previewed.

The American West

Which included:

• The USC Trojans

• The Oklahoma Sooners

• The Texas Longhorns

• The Utah Utes

The Southeast

Which included:

• The Georgia Bulldogs

• The Clemson Tigers

• The Florida Gators

• The N.C. State Wolfpack

The Midwest

Which included:

• The Ohio State Buckeyes

• The Michigan Wolverines

• The Notre Dame Fighting Irish

• The Penn State Nittany Lions

• The Michigan State Spartans

The SEC West

Which included:

• The Alabama Crimson Tide

• The Texas A&M Aggies

• The Auburn Tigers

• The Ole Miss Rebels

• The Mississippi State Bulldogs

Who will be represented in the playoffs?

We’ve had eight seasons with a College Football Playoff thus far in the history of this sport.

Here’s how the participants broke down in terms of region.

2014

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Oregon (West)

• Florida State (Southeast)

• Ohio State (Midwest)

2015

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Michigan State (Midwest)

• Oklahoma (West)

2016

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Ohio State (Midwest)

• Washington (West)

2017

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Oklahoma (West)

• Georgia (Southeast)

• Alabama (SEC West)

2018

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Notre Dame (Midwest)

• Oklahoma (West)

2019

• LSU (SEC West)

• Ohio State (Midwest)

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Oklahoma (West)

2020

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Clemson (Southeast)

• Ohio State (Midwest)

• Notre Dame (Midwest)

2021

• Alabama (SEC West)

• Michigan (Midwest)

• Georgia (Southeast)

• Cincinnati (Midwest)

The “West” is basically the Pac-12 and Big 12 while the “Southeast” is essentially the SEC East and ACC.

We’ve only had three out of eight seasons in which the four main regions I outlined didn’t each have one representative. In 2017 we had two southeastern teams and no one from the Midwest. In 2020 and 2021 we had two Midwest teams each year and no one from the West.

Part of that consistent representation relates to schedule. It’s hard to have the resume of a rightful champion if you aren’t the top team in your region, even if you’re realistically better than teams from other regions. It’s also because this enterprise makes a lot more money if you can draw in as many fanbases and markets as possible.

For argument’s sake, it’s most likely that each region I mentioned produces one representative for the playoffs.

Here’s how I’d handicap the most likely to make it.

The West

USC looks like the favorite. Their schedule sets up pretty well, they have an army of wide receivers to attack Utah’s man coverage on the road, and they finish the year with a potential resume-padder against Notre Dame.

I’m going with the Utes though. I’d feel better if their secondary hadn’t been torched by Ohio State last year, or if their top receiver wasn’t a former walk-on, but I just trust Kyle Whittingham and that program over Lincoln Riley’s portal necromancy in year one.

Utah’s schedule takes them to Florida for a resume builder and then it’s just Pac-12 fare. Their line looks good, they have tight ends and an experienced quarterback to control matchups, and their two best defenders were impact freshman a year ago.

Perhaps the West doesn’t get anyone in, but I like Utah the best.

The Southeast

Clemson and Georgia have sort of traded off access here, which makes sense since they’re both routinely recruiting the ATL and have both benefitted from the ACC and SEC East typically being weaker than the SEC West or Big 10 East.

Clemson really has a favorable schedule this year, save for their road date against Notre Dame. Georgia’s schedule isn’t bad either but they do have their cocktail party date with Florida, at South Carolina early in the year, Auburn, and a road trip late against Mississippi State.

I don’t love either of these teams but it’s hard to see either failing to run over most of their competition. I’m rolling with Clemson here, who has a more experienced team and the potential to blow away some teams on their light schedule with their D-line and linebackers.

The Midwest

I’d like the Midwest to get two teams in if not for the fact their best teams are all packed into the same division.

Most money is on Ohio State and there’s a lot I like about them, but here’s what I don’t like:

Notre Dame, Wisconsin, @Michigan State, Iowa, @Penn State, @Northwestern, Michigan.

They drew Notre Dame, the best West teams, have to travel to both Lansing and State College (a lock to be a whiteout), and then have their chance for revenge against Michigan. Ryan Day and his staff really have to have it all worked out to get through that without two losses.

Meanwhile Michigan faces an embarrassing non-conference slate of Colorado State, Hawaii, and UCONN, get Nebraska from the West, and get Penn State and Michigan State at home. They do have the dreaded Iowa road game (Kinnick at night) and face a very angry Ohio State team in Columbus.

Michigan could be undefeated heading into that game, but would a road loss to the Buckeyes necessarily knock them out of the playoffs? What if Ohio State drops a game early, but then beats Michigan and makes the Big 10 Title game and wins. Could both teams make the playoffs? What if it’s Pac-12 champion and 1-loss Utah vs 1-loss Michigan who’s defeat came on the road against the B1G champion Buckeyes?

Anyways, I like Michigan overall but Ohio State looks the most like a playoff contender of most the teams in college football.

The SEC West

How many games can Alabama afford to lose and still make it? There’s a lot of good teams in this division but most of them aren’t built for the playoffs, imo. I’m not sure if Alabama is built for the playoffs or not but I can see them scraping by to 10-2 or 11-1 by running the ball effectively and playing great defense. One of those records makes it and the other doesn’t.

The Tide get A&M and Auburn at home but do have a two-week slate of @LSU and @Ole Miss back-to-back. They need to get through that stretch and then should be in good shape.

So overall that leaves us with something like:

• Clemson

• Alabama

• Ohio State

• Michigan/Utah

Who can win the playoffs?

Unless Alabama works out their offensive tackle/wide receiver issues that sent Nick Saban portal-diving this offseason and unless Clemson finds some NFL wide receivers on their roster, I think those Midwest teams are the best bet.

Ohio State and Michigan have some high level cornerbacks, experienced quarterbacks, great skill talent, pass-rushing, etc.

No one expected this sort of rebound for Jim Harbaugh but their defensive adjustments and getting back to his roots on offense (power run game+pro-style passing machinations) have the Wolverines lurking just under the radar. Ohio State has a lot of obvious strengths and loads of blue chip talent.

That rivalry game is going to be special this season.

We’ll re-evaluate during the season as more ironclad information comes in the form of on-field results of actual teams rather than hypothetical squads we imagine during the offseason. As of now though, that’s how I see the National picture.