The Week 5 College Football Watch
Conference play is heating up with some early "make or break" games on the schedule.
There’s a few trends I’m watching play out in college football this season with particular teams. A few squads I’d like to make pronouncements on but I need to see more from, such as Clemson or Michigan, face good tests this week. Some other squads will start to play meaningful, important games in the coming weeks as well. Beyond the fact you tend to draw strong opponents in conference play, your league opponents also know you well and how to play to your weaknesses.
Those dynamics are only now starting to play out. In lieu of a particular narrative to unwind or game to preview, I’m going to hit on a few games I’ll be monitoring this weekend for how they’ll portend the rest of the season and some of the conference races or the playoff picture.
Michigan -11 at Iowa
This one is very plain. Michigan has been very good this season against pretty weak competition. Iowa is not very good, but the Hawkeyes have good qualities which could help test some attributes of the Wolverine offense.
My particular questions about Michigan relate to the following:
Dropback passing game against disciplined, quality pass defense
Offensive line quality with a slightly rebuilt lineup
Defensive pass-rush
I think Iowa will be able to test the first two, I dunno about the last point. I anticipated Michigan would be good on defense this season because of their overall quality across the back end of the unit. The linebackers are improved, the safeties are improved, their best cornerback returned, and they found a shockingly good defensive back in converted wide receiver Mike Sainristil.
The big question everyone had about them was how effectively they'd rush the passer without Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo. So far, pretty good, and Iowa probably won’t tell us much more.
The Hawkeyes know how to drop back and restrict passing windows though and always develop strong, skilled pass-rushers. Playing this defense in Kinnick Stadium will be the sternest test yet for J.J. McCarthy and it’s a win for Michigan that he’ll get a chance to take on this challenge and grow from whatever happens with the safety net offered by Michigan’s defense against a horrendous Iowa offense.
Oklahoma -6.5 at TCU
It’s been a bad week for Oklahoma. First they got pillaged by Kansas State in their own stadium in a prime time matchup where they were favored by 12.5 points. Then, after getting "#HicksToNorman trending on Twitter as their coaching staff and fanbase planned to celebrate landing their no. 1 target in recruiting, they suffered an announcement day shocker as the player instead chose Texas A&M.
I warned about this much earlier after the Brent Venables hiring.
Lebbeus Overton’s dad was an Oklahoma Sooner offensive lineman in the 90s, but then he chose to attend Texas A&M instead. These things happen, it’s not the end of the world, but I thought it was illustrative of the challenge for Brent Venables and his staff.
The strategy at Clemson and apparently at Oklahoma has been to invest much of their recruiting capital into defensive recruiting, particularly defensive linemen. That was the name of the game at Clemson as well. Way back in the day, Venables took over an Oklahoma roster devoid of any big time D-line talent and he made do for a couple of years without (and won a National Championship) before signing Tommie Harris for 2001 and then running off a long streak of recruiting and developing star tackles.
OU was going to jump start this process once more with David Hicks. The pitch was going to be so easy. Come play for a great D-line coach (Todd Bates) under a D-line friendly head coach at a big time school and play EARLY because, as K-State has made plain…
…we need you.
A&M? They signed a bunch of start defensive tackles the last two recruiting cycles. Their defensive tackle room is loaded and finding snaps for everyone won’t be super easy. Their pitch was tougher, but they made it and they won out.
Obviously OU fans immediately cried foul, saying a lot to the effect of, “A&M bought him!”
I have no idea what the particulars of this recruitment are but I’ll say the following…
Oklahoma’s reputation isn’t of a sparkling clean program who wins recruiting battles with the most virtuous methods. If you got outbid, take it like men.
You are joining the SEC in the NIL era of college football where paying players is out in the open. If you can’t afford to sit at this table for top DFW recruits…that’s not good.
I suspect Oklahoma can still “afford” to win big time battles in recruiting, but like I said in the tweet above, it’s a tough world out there. While we’re on the topic, Cale Gundy (whom Venables fired) was a big part of their recruiting in the Metroplex (yes, Hicks moved to Houston for this senior season, which was a sign things weren’t going great for Oklahoma). Todd Bates ran point here but you wonder if having Gundy might have helped.
Overall, Lincoln Riley’s strategy of winning with smaller, athletic D-linemen and then putting more onus on quarterback and offense was the better strategy, imo and historically the defining traits of OU’s strongest teams.
But…he abandoned Norman and you gotta do what you can.
Now OU has to travel to play TCU, who also have a big offensive line, a dual-threat quarterback with toughness, and some explosive running backs. After that? The Red River Shootout. It’s going to be a crucial few weeks for the year one prospects of Brent Venables’ Sooners. I’ve been shorting them all offseason so I definitely think a poor conference slate could be in store for them, but they’re not a terrible team so I’m curious to see what Venables can make of them in games like this one.
Oklahoma State at Baylor -2.5
The Bears are following up a big road win over Iowa State with another tough Big 12 contest, but this time at home against the Cowboys.
Oklahoma State vs Baylor is a fascinating game just for the contrasts in strengths. Mike Gundy’s Cowboys have always excelled in recruiting some athleticism and then using spread tactics on offense to create space for his playmakers.
They’re very good at landing big plays and when they’re disciplined and strong enough along the offensive line they can really be trouble. Such might be the case this year, they’ve looked solid through three games.
Baylor is replacing the vast majority of their Big 12 Championship-winning defensive backfield from a year ago but they are big, powerful, and fairly deep along the defensive line.
So what gives?
Head to head, across the trenches, Baylor is unquestionably better. But is OSU better in space? And by what degree? In general my thesis has been that a reasonably solid O-line and solid distribution at quarterback can allow great athletes to dominate games in space. This game could be a great example depending on how it plays out.
This year in particular the Cowboys have a number of good inside receivers so they’re really leaning into spread spacing. They’ve played more 10 personnel rather than 11 personnel (no tight end in 10 personnel) and will answer the question of how to run the ball on nickel fronts (six defenders in or around the box but only five blockers) by utilizing quarterback Spencer Sanders in the zone option game. He’s a terrific runner and is dangerous on the move.
This has helped them up the ante for spread-ball and moving the point of attack away from the trenches. They’re actually not bad on the O-line this year either, relative to recent seasons.
So how will this game go? Can they hurt Baylor in space? Is one or both of these teams Big 12 title contenders again?
The league appears to be devoid of a clear top team with loads of margin for error (i.e., Lincoln Riley Oklahoma) so my guess is there will be a team who makes the title game with a 6-3 record. If so, the outcome here doesn’t super matter for either team, but it should be telling regarding the quality of these teams.
N.C. State at Clemson -7
The Wolfpack are always pretty good. When you hire and retain a good coach and let him learn over time how to compete at a given school, it tends to yield dividends. I’ve noticed they tend to have a particular knack for coaching the passing game and developing big defensive linemen.
It’s hard to just whip ‘em in the trenches, despite their relatively modest recruiting rankings.
Despite their big time results and reputation, that’s not really Clemson’s thing anyways. Everything I said above about HUNH spread tactics exemplified by Oklahoma State is also true for Clemson. They’re like a more talented version of OSU, which is achieved due to their larger fanbase and proximity to more recruiting fertile soil including the city of Atlanta.
What’s defined Clemson under Dabo Swinney has been NFL-caliber wide receivers deployed in a spread offense which allows them to dominate games. They run the ball very well most years, but they’re not running over top teams.
This season D.J. Uiagalelei is giving them a fantastic dual-threat option for spreading teams out (usually from 11 personnel but they flex the tight end a lot) and creating maximal spread stress. It’s similar to the OSU dynamic with Spencer Sanders except Uiagalelei is a much less dynamic runner than Sanders but his line and running back are better than their counterparts at OSU.
Uiagalelei’s strong arm is translating more reliably this season into getting the ball into the hands of the improved Clemson receivers. He’s already thrown for 1,033 yards at 8.0 ypa with 10 touchdowns to one pick and is averaging around 10 carries per game in the run. He’s done some damage himself, but he’s done a lot more by using his arm and legs to connect to their skill talents. Check out the stats for the top guys.
Will Shipley: 52 carries for 353 yards at 6.8 ypc with seven rushing touchdowns.
Antonio Williams: 12 catches for 184 yards and one touchdown.
Beaux Collins: 13 catches for 218 yards and four touchdowns.
Joseph Ngata: 11 catches for 189 yards and zero touchdowns.
Jake Briningstool: 10 catches for 102 yards and two touchdowns.
Briningstool is a tight end, this is essentially their starting skill man lineup in 11 personnel. They’re spreading the ball around and doing some serious damage once more.
Can they keep it up against N.C. State? These aren’t the RPO-heavy Demon Deacons who will give up points but can score on you (the Clemson defense failed that test, btw) but they aren’t a pushover defensively. How will the Clemson offense shake out against a solid ACC team? If the Tigers maul the Wolfpack, it could be a telling sign for the playoffs even if we need to see more from Dabo’s defense.
What are you watching for this week?
WVU @ UT -9.5
Hate the cliche, but a "measuring stick game" for both teams. One will definitely be underwater in the Big XII.