The value of length in sports

I haven't had a good handle on these NBA playoffs but perhaps I've found something that will clear things up in the final two rounds.

Why were the Jordan Bulls so dang good for so long?

Six NBA Championships in eight years with Jordan out for one of the missed titles and working his way back in the other loss is pretty wild. Of course it was a different time in the league. The NBA expanded by four teams in 1988 and added two more in 1995, diluting the talent pool in a meaningful way. Meanwhile the Euros weren’t yet flooding across the pond to bolster the league’s talent level to the levels it currently enjoys.

Nevertheless, it was obviously a dominant run. The primary reason given for this unbelievable run was that Michael Jordan was the greatest NBA player of all time. We’ll come back to that topic in another post some day soon, but I want to posit another factor.

Scottie Pippen.

Pippen was an all-time great player who will never get his full due because he played with the GOAT but he was a tremendous point-forward and an elite defender. That last part is key, because Jordan was also an amazing defender. With those two at the 2 and the 3, the Bulls had the following specs on the wings:

• Jordan: 6-foot-6, 216 pounds, 6-foot-11 wingspan

• Pippen: 6-foot-8, 228 pounds, 7-foot-3 wingspan

The wings are where a defense is made in the playoffs. Rim protectors at center are valuable (over valued if you observe who wins Defensive Player of the Year every season), but (particularly in the modern game) they can be attacked in space due to the improved shooting and style of modern basketball. But when you have length on the wings you can deny easy shots anywhere on the floor, not just around the rim. The Bulls were impossible for a lot of teams because of this factor. Their length on the perimeter with these two guys at the 2 (shooting guard) and 3 (small forward) spots was unparalleled.

It might just be the case that evaluating rosters for wings is the best way to predict a champion. Allow me to explain…

The history of title wing tandems

Here’s the history of NBA Champions since the Jordan Bulls finished their second 3-peat and what they had at the 2 and the 3 in terms of length.

Numbers I’ve seen indicate the average 2 has a 6-foot-8 wingspan and the average 3 a 6–foot-11 wingspan. Those seem high to me and I suspect that guys who did the draft combine, which are among the biggest and most athletic in the league, have been disproportionately measured.

All the same, generally every champion had at least one freak and you won’t find any tandem listed here where either guy had a wingspan of less than 6-foot-8. The 2021 Milwaukee Bucks would have counted in the regular season when they used Donte Divencenzo (6-foot-4/6-foot-6 wingspan) at shooting guard but in the playoffs they started PJ Tucker who’s 6-foot-5, 245 pounds with a 6-foot-11.5 wingspan as the 3 and Middleton as the 2. With Jrue Holiday (6-foot-4/6-foot-7), a notoriously tenacious and effective perimeter defender, at the 1 (point guard) and Giannis Antetokounmpo (6-foot-11, 7-foot-3 wingspan) and Brook Lopez (7-foot-1, 7-foot-6 wingspan) behind them it made the Bucks a truly brutal defensive team.

You’ll notice there aren’t even that many high impact defensive big men on this list. You’d include Giannis for the 2021 Bucks, Kevin Garnett from the 2008 Celtics, Ben Wallace from the Pistons, perhaps Chris Bosh from the Heat, and Tim Duncan from every Spurs team in that regard but otherwise? Not a ton of great defensive big men. There were a lot of elite offensive bigs on those teams such as Shaquille O’Neal, Dirk Nowitzki, Pau Gasol, and Nikola Jokic.

Instead, I think the list above makes plain the value of long, talented defensive wings. Danny Green is on the list three different times with three different teams and in two of those instances was paired with the Pippen-esque freak Kawhi Leonard.

There’s just so much a defense armed with long wings can do. They can shade help to the strong side of the court and recover to contest shots passed to the other side of the floor. They can chase and contest shooters around screens, often allowing centers to hang back rather than trying to dart out into space. They can switch screens and guard bigger or smaller players. They help a team secure rebounds. The floor really shrinks for an offense when there’s length at those swing positions.

There are many, many instances of good scoring guards who find their offense drying up in the playoffs when they have to face some of the long-armed freaks waiting for them at that level. Meanwhile, the table above also includes what I think you’d have to call the four most consequential two-guards of this century in the NBA.

Kobe Bryant, Manu Ginobili, Dwyane Wade, and Klay Thompson, all of whom were long and good good defenders in addition to being offensive forces. You won’t find a team on the list above that didn’t have a legitimate two-way star at one of those two positions.

Measuring length for the remaining four teams

We’re down to four teams now in the NBA Playoffs and my success rate up till now in picking winners has been pretty poor. Perhaps because I didn't value the importance of length on the wings enough.

The Nuggets don’t actually get much defense from Michael Porter Jr, despite his length, and you could argue that their actual method is more to put KCP (has played on two different champions!) on one perimeter threat and Aaron Gordon (6-foot-8/7-foot-0 wingspan) on the other. But Gordon technically plays power forward so he can’t always do that. Last year the Nuggets could sub in Bruce Brown (6-foot-3/6-foot-9 wingspan) and use him with KCP to lock down an opponent’s top two perimeter players but they didn’t pay him to stay and now they’re home watching.

I also underestimated the Dallas Mavericks and overestimated the Oklahoma City Thunder. The Thunder use point guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander in a few different roles but against the Mavericks deployed Isaiah Joe (6-foot-3/6-foot-8.5 wingspan) and Lu Dort (6-foot-3/6-foot-8.5 wingspan) and as their 2 and 3 while the more freakish Jalen Williams (6-foot-5/7-foot-2 wingspan) had to play the 4 to accommodate the benching of big Josh Giddey (6-foot-8, 6-foot-8 wingspan).

The trick to making small ball work is having length at the 2 and the 3 so you don’t get punished on defense.

Here’s the four remaining 2/3 combos, starting out east.

The Boston Celtics

#2 Jrue Holiday: 6-foot-4, 205 pounds, 6-foot-7 wingspan.

#3 Jaylen Brown: 6-foot-6, 223 pounds, 7-foot-0 wingspan.

The Indiana Pacers

#2 Andrew Nembhard: 6-foot-4, 191 pounds, 6-foot-6 wingspan.

#3 Aaron Nesmith: 6-foot-6, 216 pounds, 6-foot-10 wingspan.

This is a pretty lopsided matchup, even with the long Jayson Tatum now a de-facto power forward in Boston’s favorite 2023 lineups rather than a 3 like he was in previous seasons. The Celtics are often the dumbest team in basketball but it usually takes a lot of dumb decisions to squander their natural advantages in terms of length and athleticism. Additionally, the downshift to turn Holiday into a 2 and reduce their overall length may cost them at some point in this tournament.

The Dallas Mavericks

Derrick Jones Jr: 6-foot-6, 210 pounds, 7-foot-0 wingspan

Luka Doncic: 6-foot-8, 250 pounds, 6-foot-9 wingspan

PJ Washington: 6-foot-8, 7-foot-2 wingspan

We have to pause here because there’s a lot of cloudiness around this matter for the Mavericks. For starters, I can’t find official measurements on Doncic and did the best I could. Euros don’t always get measured (with public numbers at least) but it is the case that those of us with primarily European descent typically have wingspans that correspond to our height.

Determining who plays what position for the Mavericks is another major challenge. The box score would list Luka as the 1 and Kyrie Irving (6-foot-2, 6-foot-4 wingspan) as the 2 but DEFENSIVELY where our length/theorem matters, Luka tends to guard whomever is least threatening to Dallas of the 3 or 4 while Kyrie defends the other team’s point guard.

Recently the Macs have settled on a 2/3 defensive combo of Jones and Luka and that’s probably how it will continue to be against Minnesota.

The Minnesota Timberwolves

Anthony Edwards: 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, 6-foot-9 wingspan.

Jaden McDaniels: 6-foot-9, 190 pounds, 7-foot-0 wingspan.

More controversy here. Ant measured 6-4/6-9 ahead of the draft but the Wolves have claimed he grew two inches bigger after they got him. Let’s say he’s in the 6-5/6-10 range and close to Dwyane Wade now, which is also one of my favorite comparisons for his play. Ant is a serious defender, who locked up Jamal Murray after switching onto him in the second half of game 7 against the Nuggets. McDaniels is your quintessential “3nD” wing.

If you were gauging based purely on which team has the longest, lockdown wings, you’d probably rank the teams as follows:

1. Wolves

2. Mavs

3. Celts

4. Pacers

Edwards is unique among everyone mentioned above for his two-way play, which Doncic does not match with his own efforts. The main hang up is that he’s still only 22 years old and most of the other dominant two-guards of history needed more time before they were ready to play championship ball. Jaylen Brown is the only other guy who compares in terms of being a true plus on both ends of the floor, but he’s not as imposing as a 3 paired with Holiday as he was as a massive 2 paired with Tatum. Obviously Luka is the best offensive player listed above and his defense as a wing on the ball isn’t great but as a rebounder, help, and close-out defender the 6-foot-9 length does show up from time to time.

It’s looking like the Wolves are the rightful favorites and not Boston with the Mavericks as perhaps the second strongest challenger.

Basketball space force?

In essence, what long and athletic wings allow a team to do is to dominate space on the basketball court. The point guard is generally involved at the point of attack and the center or big men often is as well.

Do we now have a space force theory for basketball? We’ll see how it goes in this tournament, especially with regards to Boston.

Length is extremely important at all the football space force positions as well. It’s hard to win the ball or contest a catch out wide if you don’t have long arms and it’s also greatly important in the battles between tackles and Edges.

The guy trying to stop someone else is generally who needs length the most. You can shoot over guys with long arms but it’s not essential. Luka doesn’t need a ton of length to get his shots off, maybe in part because he adds space with his sheer bulk and lateral quickness. Steph Curry is the greatest offensive player in NBA history for my money and he’s 6-foot-3 with a 6-foot-4 wingspan. Forget guarding him if you don’t have elite length to contest his shot but he can get it off just fine without. Kyrie Irving is similar.

The cornerback needs length more than the receiver because he has to be reactive, the same is often more true of the left tackle than the Edge. It really helps the Edge to have long arms to put in the tackle’s body so he can move him, but it’s usually the tackle who makes the most of being able to control the engagement with length as the slower player. Defensive tackles always benefit from length as well for the same reason offensive tackles need it to counter pass-rushers. You want to get your hands on those big linemen and try to battle down blocks and double teams on your own terms and chosen ground.

When you’re battling an opponent in space, there’s few substitutes for length and quickness.