The 2022 playoff rankings
The stage is set. Let's summarize the playoff field, how we got here, and the hierarchical nature of college football.
We now have the playoff rankings for the 2022 season of college football.
Georgia
Michigan
TCU
Ohio State
The big debate facing the committee was whether or not to heed Nick Saban’s politicking for Alabama and include them within the rankings somewhere. Perhaps ahead of Ohio State, who had a similarly light resume, but likely ahead of TCU who failed to win the lowly Big 12 in a year where neither of the two programs with championship resources (Texas and Oklahoma) were great.
Saban invoked the hated, “if we played one of these teams who would be favored?” argument for why Alabama should be given the nod.
If Alabama were to play TCU on a neutral field for a Championship would they be favored? Absolutely, and I bet they’d win.
But the counter argument is too powerful. Which is essentially, “well then why even play the games. Just let teams recruit, play a few exhibitions, and then let oddsmakers choose the champions.”
So Saban was rebuffed and the integrity of the competitive architecture of the sport was maintained.
The other interesting feature was where to place TCU and Ohio State. What’s the argument for the Frogs over Ohio State again? Ohio State has a single loss to the #2 team in the rankings, otherwise they’ve beaten a number of mediocre to good teams. TCU has a similar resume, perhaps with a few better wins, but then a worse loss getting taken down by K-State with a title on the line.
Feels fairly arbitrary, but it avoids a rematch of “the game” which Michigan just won very convincingly. If you were aiming to maximize ratings I think you’d rematch Michigan-Ohio State and let Georgia’s brand fuel the ratings for the TCU game. The Championship Game will do fine either way.
Instead they again honored the competitive architecture of the existing structure of the game. Michigan does not have to play Ohio State again unless the Buckeyes earn their way back to that matchup by beating Georgia. They gave the Wolverines the easier round one opponent despite being the lower seed and thus avoided making the playoff ramifications of “the game” only be a matter of who wears what color jersey in the playoff rematch. That’s a win for preserving some semblance of the established college football system.
Protecting college football’s traditional structure is an easier task than some of the other goals people have for the sport, which we’ll get to in a moment.
Overall Michigan was a huge winner in this ranking. The opening lines have Michigan -9 against the Frogs while Georgia is -7 against Ohio State. Quite a favor to the Wolverines. They get to play a TCU team who will be badly outmatched and their hated rival will have to play through the Bulldogs, potentially weakening either.
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