Spread defense 401: Counterintelligence operations
A major upgrade in the development of anti-spread tactics for defense has been defenses developing enough versatility to keep offenses guessing about what they're attacking.
I used to get in debates with some of the more famous analysts in the college football world over whether “blue chip ratio” and recruiting rankings were really the end-all, be-all of analysis. One time I posted a major critique of the whole enterprise on the now-defunct Football Study Hall and drew harsh rebukes from SB Nation colleagues.
In terms of which message carried the day, I lost big. Everyone continued to emphasize recruiting rankings as a magic 8-ball into the upcoming seasons of play.
In terms of the actual arguments made, what happened, and how college football has evolved since then? I was vindicated.
One of my biggest points for which my debate opponents initially had no good retort, centered around the quarterbacks. If recruiting rankings were so dang good, how come the bust rates on the highest rated quarterbacks were so high? It’s easy to forget nowadays that the higher-rated guys of the 2000s and early 2010s were routinely busting. The cerebral nature of the quarterback position repeatedly defied these analysts that would watch guys spin the ball in 7-on-7 settings and say, “that’s a 5-star!”
Then everything flipped. Most every college program began to run the spread offense, which simplified everything for quarterbacks. Coordinators could often get their QBs to hurry up to the line, check back to the sideline for the play-call, which would be dialed in to attack whichever defensive shell the opponent was showing, and drop back and throw to their best receiver on a simple read running the perfect route combination. Obvious physical tools could find use, blue chip quarterbacks played earlier and played well, and the bust rate shrunk.
But of course defenses adjusted. They figured out how to counter spread tactics and make the game cerebral once more. Also, Indiana went undefeated with 2/3 star players that transferred from smaller schools. My victory was ultimately complete, not that I’m keeping score.1 Today we’re going to talk about how defenses adjusted to develop better counterintelligence against the spread.2