Quarterback evaluation got hard again
The spread is no longer a crib sheet for every physically gifted quarterback prospect.
A 5-star designation for a quarterback in the 2000s was often a kiss of death.
The number of busts who had 5-star rankings was absurdly high and a deep stain on the reputation of recruiting services. The reasons for those struggles were pretty standard “field general” issues. As in, the 5-star talents often struggled with the “command the field” duties of a quarterback. They might look good throwing on air in camp, or running around, but when you added the complexity of 11-on-11 and big people trying to hurt them, they might look less good.
Another issue which has always plagued evaluation is the difference between executing difficult throws and executing difficult reads. You can see the former easily in evaluation, the latter is trickier and often overlooked. If a player can make amazing plays, isn’t that all that matters?
To make a cross-sport comparison, there are often two types of star players in the NBA. Shotmakers and playmakers. The shotmaker is exactly that, a guy who has a deep bag of tricks for ways to reliably get the ball in the hoop. The playmaker is a good scorer in his own right, but also specializes in involving teammates.
Once you reach a certain level on offense, the defense has to distort its structure to stop you, then what comes next? A shotmaker like Kyrie Irving or Kevin Durant has a lot of ways to just score anyways. Kyrie will dribble around people and get shots off from unbelievable angles, Kevin Durant can just elevate and shoot over people almost whenever he wants. Playmakers like LeBron James or Luka Doncic also have amazing scoring ability, but when the defenses loads up against them they are more liable to punish those distortions by involving a teammate.
Playmakers tend to win more championships.
At quarterback, the spread opened up the possibility of a “shotmaker” quarterback. The spacing on the field could allow a physically gifted player without a real knack for reading the field/defense and distributing with lethal intention to dominate by throwing the ball off easy reads or calling his own number in the run game.
As the spread offense proliferated across the college game, the 5-star bust rate dropped like a rock. Quarterbacks could transfer and find good contexts and then benefit from clearer reads and space to run around in. Since the 5-star designations often went to passers with powerful arms and (often) great wheels, it became easier to see them maximized.
But now things are changing.
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