Playoff team profiles: The TCU Horned Frogs
Sonny Dykes' year one TCU Horned Frogs followed a very modern formula to building a traditional triumvirate sort of playoff team.
Today our breakdown of the profiles and prognosis for the various playoff teams reaches the Texas Christian University Horned Frogs. If you’re not familiar with my methodology for evaluating potential playoff teams, I have this introduction for you:
And here’s the profile of 4-seed Ohio State:
This is TCU’s second time on the big stage as a college football program, unless you count the Big 12 Championship game which you arguably should. TCU has played for the Big 12 Championship on two occasions.
The first was in 2017, the last year Gary Patterson had a winning D-line capable of competing at the higher levels, but they faced a dynamo Oklahoma O-line and offense lead by Baker Mayfield and got smacked. The second was this very season and they were defeated in overtime by a gritty, veteran Kansas State team.
Their other time on the big stage in the college football bowl season was in 2010, when Gary Patterson squared off against the Brett Bielema/Barry Alvarez Wisconsin Badgers. That TCU team was starkly similar to this one.
They were small up front on defense, relied on loading the box with safeties and holding up in man coverage outside, and ran a power-option spread offense featuring a red-haired quarterback in his fourth year as a starter (Andy Dalton). The exact same circumstances as they’ve had in year one under Sonny Dykes.
It worked out well for them, which could be seen as evidence they could repeat their glorious Rose Bowl upset against Michigan.
I’ll spoil the ending by noting Wisconsin didn’t have a deep threat passing game, but let’s talk about TCU anyways.
TCU’s path: The exception to the rule
The TCU Horned Frogs did NOT win the Big 12 because of their ability to marshal superior resources in the trenches to stand out vis-a-vis their competition. There’s really only two programs in the Big 12 with the means to really stand out with clear advantages in the trenches, Texas and Oklahoma.
No one else recruits above and beyond their peers well enough to do so, particularly along the D-line. The 2021 Baylor Bears were probably the team with the strongest O-line/D-line on balance in the league and consequently won the Big 12 title. This lead everyone to believe, with the Bears returning virtually every lineman on either side of the ball, that they were poised for continued dominance in 2021. In reality, if you’re really so much better than everyone else on the O-line and D-line, your starters won’t all come back. Their value as a rare commodity in the game of football will see them drafted.
The Baylor guys didn’t get drafted and lo and behold! They weren’t so dominant in 2022 when the skill talent (many of whom WERE drafted) couldn’t help them as much. The NFL’s evaluation (and my own) of what made Baylor tick was the correct one, it wasn’t the lines but Tyquan Thornton, Kalon Barnes, Jalen Pitre, JT Woods, etc.
TCU’s 2022 team didn’t win this league by standing out with superior play on both lines, although obviously they were pretty solid on either side. They benefitted tremendously from the fact the league lacked any teams who DID have superior play in the trenches. In particular, Oklahoma sent three D-linemen from their 2021 team to the NFL and replaced ZERO of them with comparable players and their O-line has faltered every year since 2018. The Sooners did not enjoy their customary advantages over the rest of the league and went 3-6 in conference play in a great peek into how the other half lives.
Texas is actually getting very close to replacing them. Their 2022 offensive line included a few likely future draft picks, most notably freshman left tackle Kelvin Banks and perhaps senior right tackle Christian Jones. The Longhorns ran over most of the league on the back half of their schedule and might have run over the Horned Frogs had TCU not been able to load up nine in the box thanks to Texas quarterback Quinn Ewers’ inability to connect down the field.
Press-man coverage outside and all three safeties sitting in front of the line to gain ready to trigger down on any run. Tough sledding, Texas star running back Bijan Robinson had 12 carries for 29 yards against this defense and the Longhorns targeted deep threat receiver Xavier Worthy 12 times and hit him for four catches which yielded 32 yards. The deep threat passing game was the missing piece to Texas’ chances at a playoff season of their own.
The Texas D-line was also close, but not quite there. They had a good young player at Jack (strongside end, basically) and were arguably three-deep at either defensive tackle position with several players who are liable to be drafted in 2023 or 2024. They did NOT have a Buck (weakside end) and although they bedeviled the TCU offense at home and held them to 17 points, they couldn’t totally squash them.
I mention all of this because Texas’ performance against the TCU offense was a truly telling note for these playoffs. Texas was the closest TCU faced to a squad like Michigan, Ohio State, or Georgia. The Frogs won in a gritty performance, but it didn’t bode well for these playoffs.
Later Kansas State took TCU down in overtime of the Big 12 Championship game. Truly the Frogs could have gone down several times before then. Here’s their resume of close calls in 2022.
42-34 at SMU
38-31 at Kansas in a game where the Jayhawk starting QB went down early
38-28 vs K-State in a game where the Wildcat starting QB went down early
17-10 at Texas
29-28 at Baylor on a literally last second winning field goal
Obviously TCU was vulnerable playing away from the Fort, even when still playing in the Metroplex (K-State in Arlington, SMU in Dallas)!
There’s an easy case to be made that TCU is an 8-4/9-3 sort of team the likes of which routinely go to the Big 12 game and lose to Oklahoma. There was no Oklahoma though and TCU had a particularly good run of luck in close games. The season was a credit to the veterans on their team and quarterback Max Duggan but now it’s playoff time and, like in the Big 12 title, things are going to get real.
Scouting TCU’s trenches and space force
The latter area is a relative strength for TCU, the former is where things look grim for the Horned Frogs.
I actually thought the D-line would be their achilles heel but they’ve been a lot better than expected. They needed two key developments to play out favorably and went 2-for-2. First, defensive end Dylan Horton had to translate playing as a 3-down end who could rush the passer.
He’d already been a big, solid end for the Frogs. Gary Patterson really talked him up going into 2021 while name-dropping Brad Paisley to me at Big 12 Media Days, but until 2022 Horton hadn’t put together a great season yet. He was an obvious fit for the 3-down Jack end role at 6-foot-4, 275 pounds. His 41 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, 6.5 sacks, and three pass break-ups only partially tell the story of a player who could set the edge, shoot gaps, and help keep quarterbacks from staying comfortable in the pocket.
That was a long term success story as Horton was initially a 6-foot-4, 202 pound safety prospect out of DFW who accepted a scholarship to New Mexico. He kept getting bigger and headed to TCU where he transitioned to defensive end and really filled out.
Their other big hit was freshman nose tackle Damonic Williams, a 6-foot-1, 320 pound freshman who remarkably managed to hold up inside for them without getting blown off the ball. You might think, “well sure at that size of course he didn’t get blown away” but being big is generally only a prerequisite for consistently surviving double teams.
He’s a good athlete is part of it, I also suspect he’s got a long wingspan which also helps. He has great reach and uses his hands remarkably well for a freshman. You can’t beat a double team if you’re getting blasted by two linemen at the same time, you have to be able to move your hips and use your hands to thwart the ability of one or the other to lean on you. Damonic is solid at it for a young dude…it’s about to get real though.
Add in savvy Navy linebacker Johnny Hodges via transfer and the return of backers Dee Winters, Jamoi Hodge, and Shadrach Banks who all played quite a bit for the 2021 team. TCU used linebacker blitzes extensively to help their D-line and create effective fronts with movement.
Finally the biggest factor was fielding a pair of NFL-caliber man cover cornerbacks in Tre’vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton, who helped them play their safeties aggressively in the middle of the field. With all of those factors, TCU was able to get winning but not dominant (except against Texas) play in the trenches on defense. They utilize the “Flyover defense,” a new approach to defense which can be an effective trap for offenses.
Read more about it here:
The TCU offensive line was arguably a five-guard unit. Here’s how it looks in terms of size and recruiting ranking, which is generally a good proxy for “athleticism.”
Left tackle: Brandon Coleman, 6-foot-6, 320 pound redshirt junior. Rated 88.54 out of DFW.
Left guard: Steve Avila, 6-foot-4, 330 pound redshirt senior rated 85.02 out of DFW.
Center: Alan Ali, 6-foot-4, 300 pound redshirt senior. Rated 86.56 out of DFW.
Right guard: Wes Harris, 6-foot-4, 315 pound super senior. Rated 92.83 out of DFW.
Right tackle: Andrew Coker, 6-foot-7, 315 pound redshirt junior. Rated 87.97 out of HOU.
It’s a very experienced group with a good amount of overall size but they didn’t have any great athletes on the edges. Both Coleman and Coker are pretty heavy footed and this team got into real trouble in obvious passing situations.
Texas inflicted five sacks against them, 1.5 from Edge Barryn Sorrell and another from a corner blitz. Kansas State had only one sack in the Big 12 Championship Game but kept quarterback Max Duggan under duress all game with just a 3-man rush.
It’s not a good group for pass protection, they made their bones this year blocking for Kendre Miller to run for 1,342 yards and 17 touchdowns. The Frogs are in their comfort zone running tight zone or GT counter-read and involving Max Duggan from a spread formation. They can hit screens and play-action but traditional progression passing is pretty hit or miss. Also, the Big 12’s attitude toward calling holding appears to be, “enforcing holding would be bad for the league’s brand.” Playoff officials won’t be as forgiving.
Their space force on either side of the ball is very solid but far from elite. They don’t have a premier pass protecting athlete at either tackle spot and Quentin Johnston has proven to be a sporadic deep threat receiver. Defensively the cornerbacks are terrific but the edge rush comes from a blend of linebacker Dee Winters from the field apex linebacker spot and Dylan Horton at end. I’d call that 2.5 for 4.
If you can rush the passer, they’re vulnerable. If you can hold up against Quentin Johnston 1-on-1, they’re in trouble. If you can bracket him and still hold up against the run game, they’re in trouble. The Frog defense is pretty robust but can be overpowered in the box if you don’t let them pack it in with all three safeties.
Overall summary
So overall…
Pro-style passing game trump card? No, they can’t protect and Max Duggan isn’t a brilliant progression passer. He’s a power-option guy with a strong arm, toughness, and years of sharpened decision-making from close games.
Rule of three pass defense? In the secondary yes, the cornerbacks are good and safety Bud Clark makes three strong coverage defenders. Pass-rush wise no, not at this level.
Can they play the run from two-high? No. Like Ohio State they may play two-highish schemes but those safeties will be flat-footed and in front of the chains against a big time power run team.
Traditional triumvirate? TCU actually does arrive at the traditional triumvirate of defense, power run game, and deep threat passing game via modern spread tactics. Those cutting edge tactics helped them stand out in the Big 12, will it be enough to put them over the top against a team with big time talent and resources? Probably not, as it was only juuuuust enough in the Big 12 and didn’t actually yield the title.
Other intangibles? The overall talent level isn’t there and the space force isn’t good enough to make up for it. This team was excited for the chance win the Big 12 Championship and I don’t think they have real expectations of winning it all.
Prognosis? Grim. There wasn’t a team in the Big 12 as talented even as Ohio State, Georgia, or Michigan and TCU was lucky to come out with a playoff resume.
This preview was music to a SMU alum’s ear’s after spending all season wondering when Sonny’s patented late season collapse would kick in.