Josh Allen and the perils of quarterback evaluation
Field generals can control the game in a variety of ways, but the surrounding context makes it difficult to differentiate a commander from his troops.
Quarterback evaluation is one of the hardest components of football.
I’ve noticed that any position which comes down to mental traits rather than apparent physical ones is going to have a higher miss rate than another position. There have been many tight ends, linebackers, and safeties who found success in the middle of the field in NFL games who weren’t obvious physical talents.
Why did they find success? They had a mind for the game and could figure out how to position themselves for success in the lightning quick scrums which take place between the hash marks.
The current GOAT quarterback is Tom Brady, who was notorious for getting the ball out within an instant of the ball being snapped and methodically working the ball down the field with careful and precise distribution. If Patrick Mahomes ever surpasses him don’t overlook how many of his numerous touchdown passes against the Eagles in the last Super Bowl were quick RPOs to open receivers within a few yards of the line of scrimmage. Mahomes’ path to GOAT-dom includes continuing to develop his decision-making and field generalship (both already excellent) to prolong his career.
A quarterback’s job is ultimately to execute a winning strategy on behalf of the entire team, and the essence of strategy is playing to your strengths while forcing your opponent to come to grips with their weaknesses. You make winning plays with the right matchups when your quarterback knows what those strengths are relative to an opponent and how to consistently play to them when the game matters most.
Field generalship > athleticism or any physical attributes.
This is starting to become better understood in the world of quarterback evaluation, particularly around the draft. And yet…people still routinely make fools of themselves trying to guess which guys will succeed and which will not. Why? Because even when people are wise enough to look past physical attributes it doesn’t necessarily make them any good at evaluating the mental traits.