Is Michigan the true favorite in 2023?
The recruiting rankings are good but not flashy, the play style is effective but not flashy, the head coach is good but doesn't have a ring or playoff win...but does he have the best roster?
We have an interesting dynamic to the 2023 preseason rankings and National Championship discussion due to Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan Wolverines.
You can find them listed in Vegas at around +1,000 or +800 behind the normal trio of Georgia, Alabama, and Ohio State.
Earlier in the offseason we discussed ESPN’s FPI rankings, which give ridiculous “percentage chance of making the playoffs/winning the championship” and had Ohio State with a 36.7% chance to WIN the 2023 National Championship and Michigan with a 3.9% chance.
How in the world do you arrive at that calculation after watching Michigan absolutely pound the Buckeyes for the last two seasons?
Another popular measure for determining “who can win the championship?” is blue chip ratio. What percentage of your roster was ranked as a “blue chip” (4-stars or higher) recruit out of high school?
I’ve long had issues with blue chip ratio, noting the 90s Nebraska dynasty certainly didn’t qualify and the 2000 Oklahoma Sooners can’t have either. A new problem with blue chip ratio is the fact the transfer portal now makes it easier for teams to hit at a higher rate on their 3-stars. You just recruit them AFTER you find out if they panned out at a lower level of competition.
I believe the 2023 Michigan Wolverines clear the 50% threshold for a “championship roster” but they lag way behind Ohio State, Alabama, Georgia, etc. For folks measuring the stacking of talent, Michigan doesn’t stand out above the rest.
Between all that along with Harbaugh’s initial struggles at Michigan to get over the rivalry game bumps, and their back-to-back playoff semifinal exits…most people aren’t in love with the Wolverines as a preseason pick.
But if you use contrar-Ian’s typical methods for identifying championship quality, it’s hard to build as good a case for anyone else.
Keep reading with a 7-day free trial
Subscribe to America's War Game to keep reading this post and get 7 days of free access to the full post archives.