Final stretch of the NBA Finals

Our spread-O Pacers and spread-D Thunder are tied 2-2 with just three games left.

I liked the Pacers to win this series. Vegas’ long odds against them and what seemed like the entire NBA commentariat debating whether Indiana had a slight chance or zero chance was a little daunting, but I think there are some blindspots in NBA coverage and the Pacers are pretty well situated in that blindspot.

Of course OKC could still win the series, especially after pulling out that big win in Game 4, but at least I was right that it was a real matchup.

We’ll have Game 5 tonight in Oklahoma City, Game 6 on Thursday in Indianapolis, then potentially Game 7 on Sunday night back in Oklahoma. It’s basically a series reset at this point with OKC recovering home court advantage and avoiding a disastrous 3-1 deficit with the last win, but I think these NBA playoff series come down to something a little different.

The fundamentals through four games

Heading into this series I liked the Pacers for two reasons. First, their front court was a touch matchup for Oklahoma City’s front court. I didn’t think Isaiah Hartenstein could really hang in this series and that Chet Holmgren might be up against it banging with the skilled big men Indiana has.

Second, Tyrese Halliburton is a brilliant point guard whereas Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a brilliant scorer. I think the former is a tougher defend in a playoff series than the latter. You may disagree and point to the box scores, but let’s take a quick peak.

Game 1

• Halliburton: 14 points on 6-13 shooting, 10 rebounds, six assists.

• SGA: 38 points on 14-30 shooting, five rebounds, three assists.

Game 2

• Halliburton: 17 points on 7-13 shooting, three rebounds, six assists.

• SGA: 34 points on 11-21 shooting, five rebounds, eight assists.

Game 3

• Halliburton: 22 points on 9-17 shooting, nine rebounds, 11 assists.

• SGA: 24 points on 9-20 shooting, eight rebounds, four assists.

Game 4

• Halliburton: 18 points on 7-15 shooting, two rebounds, seven assists.

• SGA: 35 points on 12-24 shooting, three rebounds, zero assists.

What should stand out to you is the volume. SGA is scoring a lot of points but not always with much efficiency, the disparity has also decreased as the series has worn on. Game 4 his efficiency improved from Game 3 as he made 10-10 free throws and a bunch of late shots.

If you include the outcomes of the assists to the totals and count up the attempts that way, which I bothered to take the pain to do, you get the following results.

Game 1

• Halliburton: 29 points on 19 attempts at 1.52 points per attempt.

• SGA: 44 points on 33 attempts at 1.33 points per attempt.

Game 2

• Halliburton: 32 points on 19 attempts at 1.68 points per attempt.

• SGA: 56 points on 29 attempts at 1.93 points per attempt.

Game 3

Halliburton: 47 points on 28 attempts at 1.68 points per attempt.

SGA: 33 points on 24 attempts at 1.36 points per attempt.

Game 4

• Halliburton: 36 points on 22 attempts at 1.64 points per attempt.

• SGA: 35 points on 24 attempts at 1.46 points per attempt.

That still doesn’t capture the full “points per possession” but you get more of an idea of how looking at shot attempts and point totals doesn’t tell the full story. The attempts taken from Halliburton’s hands or his teammates after one of his passes are scoring much more efficiently and in two games out of four at a higher volume. Those two games are naturally the two Indiana has won. What’s happening is Halliburton is often creating a lot of three-point shots for his teammates, which are a killer.

So this has worked out for Indiana. The front court matchups have also been mostly a win. Hartenstein has struggled to stay on the floor in this series, however Jalen Williams has held up effectively defending Pascal Siakam and prevented the Pacers from cooking them down low.

This series has largely been OKC’s lockdown perimeter defense, starring Lu Dort and Alex Caruso, vs Indiana’s 5-out/fast pace spread offense. Credit to SGA for scoring at a reasonably efficient clip at a high enough volume to keep the Thunder in this.

Now we have a draw through two games. What happens in the final three?

Advantages and disadvantages

OKC has the obvious advantage from here that Game 5 and Game 7 (if necessary) are both at home, where they are pretty fearsome thanks to an amazing home crowd. Indiana’s crowd is also great btw, but OKC has barely lost a game at home in these playoffs. They’re 9-2 in that building thus far in this run.

Of course Indiana can go 1-1 in OKC from here on out and win the series so long as they win at home.

Photo by Seth Reese on Unsplash

Vegas and most everyone else looks at home/away pretty heavily and have concluded OKC has been restored as a mega favorite to win.

For me, the winners of these series tend to come down much less to home/away and more about who has lineup shifts and adjustments left to turn to down the stretch. Every game tends to carry new adjustments until one team starts to run out of players they trust to put on the floor or they run out of tactical adjustments.

In Game 3 it looked like Indiana had seized control of the series by guarding SGA the full length of the floor with Andrew Nembhard (whom I seriously overlooked when investigating which teams had great perimeter defenders) and hunting him on offense and forcing him to defend actions throughout the game. SGA was totally gassed by the heavy workload and pace of the game and had nothing down the stretch.

OKC adjusted in Game 4 by having Jalen Williams bring the ball up the floor more, resting SGA heavily early in the game, and also utilizing SGA/J-Dub pick’n’roll actions after seeing that Aaron Nesmith could not hang with SGA and avoid fouling him like Nembhard can.

So now what?

Here’s what had me optimistic for Indiana going into Game 4 and only a bit less optimistic after they blew that game. The workload that’s been on SGA and the main five/six guys for OKC has been extremely heavy. He’s having to produce a ton of the OKC offense as their shooting has dried up and the Pacer defense has eliminated some of their other options. Williams helped him a ton in Game 4, but has been hit or miss throughout the playoffs. He’s definitely trending up, but he also fell down on his tailbone hard twice in Game 4.

I have a suspicion that the longer the series goes, the better for Indiana because of their superior depth and more evenly distributed offensive and minute burdens. Most would say that a Game 7 played in PayCom Center is a huge advantage for OKC, I’m less sure given the intensified pressure and the fact that a theoretical Game 7 will feature some exhausted players and Indiana has been pacing their players better.

So long as there isn’t a debilitating injury or an adjustment from OKC that has no answer from Indiana, it’s not hard to imagine the Pacers losing Game 5 but rebounding in Game 6 at home and then winning a war of attrition in Game 7. If OKC loses Game 5? They’ll have to summon the energy to win on the road in Game 6 and then win Game 7.

The case for OKC is simple. Lu Dort, Williams, and Alex Caruso will keep up their defensive intensity with increased awareness of the Pacer offense and if they just clamp this thing down SGA only needs two more games of a caliber he’s offered in very game except Game 3 to close em out.

My instinct is still to trust in the team with the better playoff coach (Rick Carlisle of Indiana won the 2011 Finals) and the true point guard. Indiana may still have adjustments left to throw off the Thunder, like perhaps a zone defense, and their style is more likely wear out the opponent than themselves.