Bill C's SP+ projections for 2025

Bill Connelly's always provocative analytics model has spit out some early projections for the 2025 season.

I cannot tell you how many times I’ve argued with SP+, the proprietary analytics model put out by my former colleague Bill Connelly. I’m not sure who wins or loses more of the arguments between me and Bill’s model, I remember a few notable wins and a few notable losses.

At one time I had a column with Football Outsiders where I previewed the top six games in college football of every weekend, posted SP+ and FEI projections, and posted SP+ picks while making my own. After a while I came to understand those models pretty well.

What I’ve found is that, like with any other projection by man or machine, Bill’s formula gets a lot right but there are holes in the system. I thought it’d be interesting to compare his recent FREE public projection with last year’s projection at this time and what I think will happen.

There’s not really a better analytics style system for me to go up against.