Are there really messiahs in the NFL Draft?

How should you spend a top draft pick? Take chances on rare commodities? Or lock up sure thing blue chips?

The 2024 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a pretty interesting test case in general Draft theory. What’s the appropriate strategy to apply in building a team through the Draft?

One of the more popular modes of thought these days is for teams to use 1st round picks on the sorts of athletes you generally cannot get on your team otherwise. It’s basically a sort of “space force” theory and most of the players that fall under the list of unattainable athletes actually play my space force positions.

Offensive tackles, Edges, cornerbacks, and….

Here’s where we diverge. The NFL values quarterbacks in their version of space force theory rather than wideouts. The reasoning for this makes a certain degree of sense. Even I will tell you that while wideouts are the most impactful position (at least in the college game) they’re also some of the easier stars to find these days. But an elite quarterback is not easy to find. The elite quarterback is also a player that most think will put your team in contention every year for which they’re under contract.

He’s basically a messiah for a franchise.

How do you find a messiah? Well let’s say the top quarterbacks in the NFL who guarantee their team a shot at contention every year are mostly included in the following list:

• Patrick Mahomes (1st round)

• Josh Allen (1st round)

• Matthew Stafford (1st round)

• Justin Herbert (1st round)

• Lamar Jackson (1st round)

• Jalen Hurts (2nd round)

• Trevor Lawrence (1st round)

• Joe Burrow (1st round)

Seems that it’s rather hard to find a franchise quarterback outside of the 1st round, no? At least so goes the prevailing wisdom on this, but this also means that teams will draft iffy quarterbacks in the first round and generate tons of busts…which brings us to 2024.

There are tons of really good players in the 2024 NFL Draft worthy of being taken early in the first round AND there are a ton of fringe-1st round quarterbacks. So what gives? Who’s going to “win the draft?” Is there another Mahomes in here somewhere who will guide a revolution that overthrows the Chiefs?